Government Migration Pledges: Data Tracker
Sources: Home Office Immigration System Statistics (asylum support, returns, organised immigration crime), ministerial statements, ONS Long-term International Migration. Quarterly series to 31 March 2026; one in one out reported figures to 1 May 2026.Pledge: end asylum hotels by the end of this Parliament
The government has committed to ending the use of asylum hotels by the end of this Parliament (expected July 2029). The solid line shows people in hotel accommodation at each quarter end, from the first published breakdown (31 December 2022). The dashed line is a straight-line path from the latest count (20,885 at 31 March 2026) to zero at the end of Parliament. It is shown for scale only: it is not a government schedule.
Pledge: increase returns of people with no right to stay
Quarterly Home Office returns from 2024 Q3, the first full quarter after the 4 July 2024 election. The headline counts enforced plus voluntary returns (the Home Office definition); port refusals are a separate series and are not included in the headline. Quarterly published data cannot reproduce ministerial since-5-July milestone claims, which use different date ranges and definitions.
Pledge: "smash the gangs" (organised immigration crime disruptions)
The National Crime Agency and Home Office publish quarterly counts of organised immigration crime disruptions, assessed as minor, moderate or major. In the year ending 2026 Q1 there were 4,388 disruptions (135 major), against 2,998 in the previous year, a 46% increase. A disruption is an assessed operational outcome, not a prosecution or conviction.
Pledge: the UK-France "one in, one out" arrangement
Under the arrangement piloted from 6 August 2025, for each small-boat arrival returned to France the UK admits one person through a safe route. It was extended in June 2026, with a renewal decision due by 1 October 2026. No official running total is published: the milestones below are figures reported in ministerial statements and press coverage. The official quarterly series for returns of all people who arrived by small boat (any return type, not just this scheme) recorded 2,750 returns in the year ending 2026 Q1.
| As of | Returned to France | Admitted from France | Reported in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | 42 | Not reported | Ministerial statements, late October 2025 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | 281 | 350 | Home Office update, 27 January 2026 |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 377 | 380 | Ministerial statement, early March 2026 |
| 1 May 2026 | 606 | 588 | Reported figures, 1 May 2026 |
Reported figures, not an official statistical series. Reported scheme returns were roughly 3 to 4% of small-boat arrivals over September 2025 to March 2026.
Pledge: a "significant reduction" in net migration
The 2024 government pledged a significant reduction in net migration, without a numeric target. The ONS provisional estimate for the year ending December 2025 is 171,000, down from 331,000 in 2024 and a record 745,000 in 2022, and the lowest since 2021.
Data Limitations & Caveats
- This page tracks data, not verdicts. Each pledge is worded differently in different statements; this page presents the official series most relevant to each and does not declare pledges met or missed.
- Hotel counts are quarter-end snapshots. Numbers move within quarters; the hotel breakdown is only published from 31 December 2022, and accommodation categories have changed over time. The dashed line to zero is illustrative, not a government schedule.
- Returns definitions matter. Headline returns = enforced plus voluntary (Home Office definition); port refusals are always a separate series here. Quarterly data cannot reproduce ministerial since-5-July milestone claims, which use different date ranges and definitions. Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revision.
- Disruptions are not convictions. An organised immigration crime disruption is an operational outcome assessed by the NCA as minor, moderate or major; counts from 2024 Q2 are provisional and are revised.
- One in one out has no official running total. Milestone figures come from ministerial statements and press reporting, and are not directly comparable with the official quarterly returns series.
- Net migration estimates are revised. The 2025 figure is an ONS provisional estimate and may change; historical years have been revised substantially in the past.