UK Labour Market: Youth Employment & Immigration
Sources: Centre for Social Justice / HMRC payroll data (May 2026) · ONS NEET Bulletin (Feb 2026) · ONS Long-term Migration (May 2026)Analysis of HMRC payroll data by the Centre for Social Justice (published May 2026) found that between January 2020 and December 2025, the number of non-EU nationals under 25 on UK payrolls rose from 82,000 to 370,000 - an increase of 288,000, or 355%. Over the same period, the number of UK national under-25s on payrolls grew by just 11,000, or 0.3%. The headline ratio is stark: for every one additional young British worker added to UK payrolls, 27 young non-EU migrants were hired.
The effect is particularly pronounced in retail and hospitality. Non-EU workers of all ages in those sectors rose by 473,000 (nearly doubling) between January 2020 and December 2025, while UK nationals in the same sectors fell by 252,000. The most recent twelve-month comparison (December 2024 to December 2025) shows the trend continuing: non-EU under-25 payroll employment rose by 33,200 while UK national under-25 payroll employment fell by 32,200 - an almost exact mirror inversion.
The Centre for Social Justice analysis does not establish that migration causes youth unemployment. Other factors driving youth worklessness include a sharp rise in mental health conditions cited as reasons for economic inactivity, skills mismatches between young people and available roles, benefit incentive structures, and regional inequality. The Migration Observatory consistently cautions that the labour market relationship between immigration and native employment is not straightforwardly competitive - migrants often fill roles that complement rather than substitute for UK workers. The data shows a correlation over a specific period; the causal question is contested.
What is not contested is the scale of youth worklessness. In October–December 2025, 957,000 young people aged 16–24 were NEET - not in education, employment, or training. That is 12.8% of all 16–24 year olds, up approximately 200,000 from 2020. The government's own forecasts suggest this could reach 1.25 million by 2030 if current trends continue, at a projected annual cost of £125 billion in lost productivity and welfare support (CSJ estimate).
Net migration fell sharply in the year ending December 2025. The ONS published provisional figures showing 171,000 net migration - nearly half the 331,000 recorded in the previous year, and the lowest since 2021. Total long-term immigration was 813,000 (down 20% from 1,012,000). The fall was driven primarily by a 47% decline in non-EU work-related arrivals as post-Brexit visa changes took effect. British nationals continued their net outflow: 136,000 more UK citizens left the UK than returned. Of all UK emigrants, 76% are now under 35.
Net Change in Under-25 Payroll Employment (Jan 2020–Dec 2025)
Additional workers added to UK payrolls since January 2020. UK nationals (+11,000) vs non-EU migrants (+288,000). This shows the change, not the total - UK nationals make up the majority of the workforce overall.
Source: Centre for Social Justice analysis of HMRC UK payrolled employments data (May 2026). Methodology: HMRC data by nationality, region, industry, age and sex. Under-18 and 18–24 bands combined.
Young Britons NEET (Oct–Dec 2025)
Net Migration Context (ONS Year Ending December 2025)
Long-term net migration fell to 171,000 - nearly halving from 331,000 the previous year. UK nationals have a net outflow; EU nationals have been net-emigrating since 2022.
Young Britons Emigrating: Record Numbers (Migration Observatory, 2026)
Labour Market Data Limitations
- Correlation, not causation. The CSJ analysis shows non-EU under-25 payroll employment rose 355% while UK under-25 employment grew 0.3%. It does not prove that migrant employment caused British youth unemployment. Mental health, skills mismatches, benefit structures, and regional inequality all contribute to NEET rates.
- Payroll data only. HMRC payroll data covers payrolled employees but not the self-employed, gig workers, or those working informally.
- UK nationals are still the majority. The UK has approximately 4.8 million under-25 payrolled workers. Non-EU workers (370,000) are a significant but minority share (about 7%). The change data shows relative growth rates, not dominance.
- Net migration methodology changed. The ONS revised international migration estimates in 2024. Earlier years' figures are not directly comparable to 2025 under the new methodology.