The Boriswave: What Happened Between 2021 and 2023
Between 2019 and 2023, UK net migration rose from 224,000 to 685,000 (calendar year) or 906,000 measured in the year to June 2023 - the highest figure ever recorded. This surge is sometimes called the "Boriswave" after Boris Johnson, whose government introduced the post-Brexit points-based immigration system in January 2021. The term is contested, but the policy changes made under Johnson's government are well-documented as the primary drivers.
The key causes were:
1. The points-based system (January 2021). Brexit ended EU free movement, which removed the right of EU citizens to live and work in the UK without a visa. In theory this should have reduced immigration. In practice, the government simultaneously opened much wider non-EU routes to compensate for labour shortages. Non-EU net migration rose from around +155,000 in 2019 to +511,000 in 2022.
2. International student dependants (October 2021). The government allowed international students to bring family members to the UK for the first time. Student dependant visa grants rose from 45,000 in 2021 to 139,000 in 2023 - a 209% increase. This single change added roughly 100,000 additional arrivals per year at its peak before being reversed in January 2024.
3. Health and Care Worker visas. The social care sector was given an exemption from salary thresholds, enabling bulk recruitment from overseas. Care worker visa grants rose from 59,000 in 2021/22 to 151,000 in 2022/23. Many arrived with dependants, multiplying the immigration effect. Cases of exploitation and visa fraud in the care sector subsequently led to the route being tightened in 2024.
4. Humanitarian schemes. The Ukraine Homes for Ukraine scheme (from March 2022) brought approximately 200,000 visa grants. The BN(O) Hong Kong visa route (from January 2021) brought around 152,000 by end of 2022. Both are counted in net migration figures as long-term arrivals and together contributed around 350,000 to the 2022 spike. These were deliberate policy choices to support specific populations, not unintended consequences.
Successive Government Pledges - and the Reality
Every Prime Minister since David Cameron has promised to reduce net migration. The record is as follows:
David Cameron (2010, 2015): Promised net migration in the "tens of thousands." Net migration averaged 260,000 during his tenure and reached a then-record 334,000 in 2015. The pledge was quietly dropped after the 2015 election.
Theresa May (2017): Repeated the "below 100,000" target. Net migration was 282,000 in 2017 and 226,000 in 2018. Never came close.
Boris Johnson (2019): Pledged to bring net migration "below 250,000." By 2022 it was 745,000 - three times his stated target.
Rishi Sunak (2022-2024): Made no specific numerical target but introduced a series of restrictions: raised family visa income threshold, removed student dependant rights, capped care worker routes. These changes began to take effect in 2024.
Keir Starmer (2024-present): Pledged a "significant reduction." Net migration fell to 331,000 in 2024 and 171,000 in 2025 - the lowest since 2021. This is partly the effect of Sunak-era restrictions working through the system, partly new restrictions by Labour, and partly the normal outflow of people on time-limited visas beginning to leave. The 171,000 figure is still above every year between 2009 and 2020.
Why Governments Consistently Failed
The reasons successive governments failed to meet immigration targets are structural. First, the NHS and social care system have become dependent on overseas recruitment. When the government restricts one route, employers lobby for another. The care worker visa exemption under Johnson is the clearest example. Second, universities depend heavily on international student fees following the 2010-2012 reduction in undergraduate funding. Restricting international students directly threatens university finances. Third, the UK economy has specific labour shortages - in seasonal agriculture, construction, hospitality - that employers argue cannot be filled domestically at current wages. Fourth, family reunion rights and refugee obligations under international law create inflows that are difficult to restrict without legal challenge.
The result is that immigration targets function more as political statements than operational plans. The Home Office has described the immigration system as one of the most complex in the world to administer. In 2012, Theresa May herself called it "not fit for purpose."
Public Sentiment
Public concern about immigration rose sharply from around 2021. YouGov tracking data shows immigration rising from approximately 15% of respondents citing it as a top concern in 2019 to around 47% by 2024 - making it the leading political issue ahead of the NHS and cost of living. This coincided with both the record net migration figures and the visible increase in Channel crossings and asylum hotel use.
The political consequences were significant. Reform UK rose from around 2% of the vote in 2019 to 14.3% (approximately 4 million votes, 5 seats) in the 2024 general election, driven largely by immigration as a policy concern. No party won a majority on an anti-immigration platform, but immigration concern was cited as a major factor in Labour's landslide victory being smaller than polling had suggested.
In August 2024, riots broke out in Rotherham, Sunderland, Hull and other English towns, targeting hotels housing asylum seekers. Around 1,000 people were arrested. The immediate trigger - the murders of three children in Southport by a British-born attacker - was not directly immigration-related, but the riots reflected accumulated frustration about asylum hotel accommodation and border crossings that had built over several years. The events prompted the government to accelerate asylum processing and removal operations.
What Has Changed Since 2023
The 2023-2025 fall in net migration (from 685,000 to 171,000 in calendar year terms) reflects genuine policy effect. The removal of the student dependant right in January 2024 cut student dependant arrivals by 82% within 12 months. Tighter care worker visa rules reduced that route substantially. The government's commitment to processing 100,000 asylum initial decisions in 2024 began to reduce the backlog that drives hotel accommodation costs. Net migration in the year ending December 2025 (171,000) is the lowest since 2021 - but still higher than any year between 2009 and 2020.